There were only three blemishes on the Alaska Aces' win-loss record after the end of the elimination round of this year's Commissioner's Cup. Two of which were incurred by the San Mig Coffee Mixers. From which, one turned out to be a controversial victory.
Trillo vs Cone. The Beast vs Sakuragi. Dozier vs Bowles. Casio vs Barroca. Alaska vs San Mig Coffee.
Will the Aces finally score one (at best, three) against the Mixers? Or will Tim Cone's dominance over his former team continue? Are we looking at the possibility of a James Yap-less series? Should we expect Calvin Abueva and Mark Pingris to guard each other? Will this be the start of the JVee Casio-Mark Barroca rivalry or does Alex Mallari have other things in mind? Plus, who is really the better import: Robert or Denzel?
The multifarious subplots and questions that surround the Aces vs Mixers best-of-five semifinals showdown have ultimately led us to decipher this one important truth: it is going to be one heckuva series.
How They Got Here
Different routes. That’s basically the long and short of it.
Alaska made good use of their win-once advantage over Air 21 to book the first ticket to the Final Four. Their 87-81 decision against the Express – the only other team outside of San Mig Coffee that beat them in the eliminations – was spearheaded by JVee Casio who had 19 points and five assists. Alaska needed only to beat Air 21 by just a single game after topping the elimination round with a league-best 11-3 record. Quantitatively, the outstanding record came from the win streaks that they were able to string both in the beginning and towards the latter half of the conference. Qualitatively, it’s for the not-so-simple reason that involves something about Luigi Trillo altering the mindset of this team.
Meanwhile, the defending champions started the season on a low-note dropping their first three games; the arrival of Denzel Bowles though changed their fortunes as the returning import stirred the Mixers to three straight victories. After eliminations’ end they held an 8-6 record. During the quarterfinals, the fourth-ranked team dropped their first game against Meralco. But they were able to salvage two consecutive triumphs that allowed them to enter the next phase of the tourney. San Mig Coffee was able to book the last ticket to the semis bus via a series-clinching win over the Meralco Bolts just this Wednesday.
Robert Dozier vs. Denzel Bowles
Who’s better?
The mere fact that they were able to carry their respective teams to the semis is a clear manifestation that these two are both effective.
Of the remaining four reinforcements, only Dozier is the first-choice import left. After 14 elimination games, the NCAA I Division school product was able to norm 21.71 points, 16.21 rebounds and 2.71 blocks. But ask coach Trillo and he’ll tell you that his import provides his team more than that.
If not for prior commitments from another club, Denzel Bowles could have played all of the Mixers’ elimination games as well. Instead he was able to log 12 contests, while registering 22.92 points, 15.08 rebounds and 2.08 blocks. Clearly, the reigning Best Import of the Commissioner’s Cup is producing equally impressive numbers as his counterpart.
It wouldn’t be the first time that the two will face each other when the series starts this Saturday. They’ve already met two times in the eliminations. While Dozier (23.5 ppg, 19.0 rpg, 3.5 bpg) got the better of Bowles (23.0 bpg, 17.0 rpg, 3.0 bpg) stats-wise, the latter’s advantage clings on the more important category: team wins. Again, San Mig has beaten Alaska. Twice. Bowles has a 2-0 edge under that department.
Infographic by Ralph Lee
Key factors for Alaska
Get Game One: With a short series like this, Alaska has to get the headstart. Getting the W on Saturday will be crucial for the Aces. It would make them realize that well, San Mig’s beatable. They haven’t beaten the Mixers – not only this conference – but running two seasons now. That’s eight games in total. It is important for Trillo’s team to score a Game One victory. It all starts from there. Really.
Casio’s Time: During the team’s first meeting, JVee struggled with a poor statline of 3-4-3. You can’t afford to have a line like that from your team’s primary point guard. He’s got to get himself involved, or perhaps more importantly, he’s got to get his teammates more involved. We could possibly see the start of the Casio-Barroca rivalry in this series – two former Gilas players. Alaska-great-now-Mixers-assistant-coach Johnny Abarrientos will surely be delighted with that.
Milk the Bench: During the teams’ second meeting, Calvin Abueva and RJ Jazul stepped-up big time for the Aces. The Beast unleashed 27 points and collared 11 boards. While Jazul, produced 19 points highlighted by five three-pointers as Casio sat out the contest with an injury. Along with Abueva and Jazul, they’ve got to get production from Gabby Espinas and Dondon Hontiveros.
Key factors for San Mig Coffee
A Healthy James Yap: As of this writing, James Yap’s status for the series is ’50-50’. Yap said that himself during San Mig’s series-clinching win over Meralco. He is a key component for the Mixers’ title-retention bid. Not having Yap on a San Mig jersey will definitely be welcome news for the Aces. Therapy. Rehab. Chiro. Whatever works. James Yap will need to suit up in this series.
Ping Ping Ping: We’ve all heard the story. How he defied an order from his coach, and why he insisted on taking on Meralco’s import. This defiant ward slash playing coach slash workhorse is the reason why the Mixers are in the semifinals. Pingris guarded Cardona, he took on Hugnatan, and he put the handcuffs on Dawson. That basically tells you that he can handle Baguio, he can make Espinas a non-factor, and he will also take a crack on Dozier. But I really wouldn’t be surprised if his sight is set on stopping Abueva.
Total Shutout: These two teams have played against each other for a total of eight quarters. And six out of eight, Tim Cone’s team has limited Alaska to no more than 20 points per twelve minutes. That’s defense for you right there. In order for San Mig to continue its conquest of the Aces, they need to shutout Trillo’s troops in this best-of-five affair. They do that and they prime themselves up for another crack at the championship.
Prediction
As I’ve written before, I think Alaska has given the entire Gatas Republik enough reasons to believe that they are legit title contenders. I could not stress more the work that Trillo has put in to the Uytengsu-owned franchise. In fact, no less than Tim Cone has seconded that thought during the Mixers’ most recent win.
“They are playing great basketball and they are really, really tough to beat,” were his exact words.
But given the fact that San Mig Coffee has got the number of Alaska for seasons now, I am led into thinking that Cone is still hiding something under his sleeve.
All things considered, I really think that much like James Yap’s status in this series -- this five-game affair could also go either way. It’s ‘50-50.’
San Mig Coffee in 5.
(See I really wouldn’t be ashamed if Alaska proves this prediction wrong.)
